11 October 2003

TS Mindy forms over Hispaniola...

The area of disturbed weather I had been mentioning since Oct 6 was upgraded to
Tropical Storm Mindy at 21Z yesterday.  She remains disorganized though, and
will not have long to wait until she's picked up by a trough.  She's already in
moderate shear, and it should pick up a bit today too, making it even
questionable if this weak TS will survive.  As of 15Z, Mindy was at 22.2N 71.6W
and tracking NW at 12kts.  Intensity is 35kts and 1007mb (weakened a bit from
her peak intensity so far of 40kts and 1002mb).  The forecast track takes her
over the extreme south islands of the Bahamas, then recurving and heading for
Bermuda by Monday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located southwest of the Cape Verde islands and
conditions are marginally favorable for slow development.  It's moving west at
12kts and has a 1006mb Low.  Although being sheared now, this could improve with
time and makes this something worth watching.  Normally, the Cape Verde season
would be over by now, but there are bound to be outliers.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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