01 October 2003

Kate still a TS, Gulf system still brewing...

Kate has made the westward turn as forecast, and continues to maintain
strong Tropical Storm intensity.  As of 15Z, she was located at 32.2N
40.2W and tracking W at 10kts.  Intensity is estimated to be 60kts and
991mb.  The forecast is for slight strengthening, re-achieving hurricane
strength later today as vertical shear continues to relax.  She does
appear to be forming an eye on both visible and infrared satellite

For the 6th day, we're watching a large disturbance make its way into
the southern Gulf of Mexico.  It still has very deep and persistent
convection, along with a broad circulation and 1006mb central pressure
at about 22N 93W.  However, recent aircraft recon reveals a non-tropical
structure.  It will continue to be monitored closely for tropical
development. Again, this would be TD17/Larry if it forms.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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