Kate's satellite presentation continues to improve, and therefore, so does her intensity. She has a large and symmetric eye, a CDO being maintained over the eyewall at about -62C (the approx temperature of the tropopause there), and healthy outflow. MSLP has fallen 13mb in the past 24 hours... not rapid, but noticable. As of 15Z, Hurricane Kate was located at 29.5N 48.3W and tracking W at 9kts. Intensity is estimated at 95kts and 966mb, making her a strong CAT2 storm. The forecast is for further intensificiation, possibly becoming the third major hurricane of the season in the next 12-24 hours. The westward trek is expected to continue through the weekend, then make a turn to the north in response to an advancing midlatitude trough... possibly affecting Newfoundland early next week. TS Larry is still not very well organized, and still in very weak steering flow, but has begun to drift south toward land. Presently, there is very deep convection just east of the center, with cloud tops as cold as -90C at times. At 15Z today, Larry was at 20.0N 94.6W and creeping SW at 2kts. Maximum winds are 50kts and MSLP is 997mb. There are frequent aircraft recon flights into the storm, so this intensity is not satellite-estimated. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for much of the coast along the Bay of Campeche. Larry is forecast to continue drifting slowly south, heading toward Chivela Pass, Mexico (home of the famous Tehuantepec gap winds!). He is forecast to slowly intensify, almost reaching hurricane strength as he makes landfall early next week.
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