03 October 2003

Kate now a CAT2, Larry heading for Mexico...

Kate's satellite presentation continues to improve, and therefore, so
does her intensity.  She has a large and symmetric eye, a CDO being
maintained over the eyewall at about -62C (the approx temperature of the
tropopause there), and healthy outflow.  MSLP has fallen 13mb in the
past 24 hours... not rapid, but noticable.  As of 15Z, Hurricane Kate
was located at 29.5N 48.3W and tracking W at 9kts.  Intensity is
estimated at 95kts and 966mb, making her a strong CAT2 storm.  The
forecast is for further intensificiation, possibly becoming the third
major hurricane of the season in the next 12-24 hours.  The westward
trek is expected to continue through the weekend, then make a turn to
the north in response to an advancing midlatitude trough... possibly
affecting Newfoundland early next week.

TS Larry is still not very well organized, and still in very weak
steering flow, but has begun to drift south toward land.  Presently,
there is very deep convection just east of the center, with cloud tops
as cold as -90C at times.  At 15Z today, Larry was at 20.0N 94.6W and
creeping SW at 2kts.  Maximum winds are 50kts and MSLP is 997mb.  There
are frequent aircraft recon flights into the storm, so this intensity is
not satellite-estimated.  A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch
are in effect for much of the coast along the Bay of Campeche.  Larry is
forecast to continue drifting slowly south, heading toward Chivela Pass,
Mexico (home of the famous Tehuantepec gap winds!).  He is forecast to
slowly intensify, almost reaching hurricane strength as he makes
landfall early next week.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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