Hurricane Kate appears very healthy on satellite imagery. Outflow is not ideal, but there is a defined eye and cold cloud tops over the eyewall. As of 15Z she was at 30.0N 44.1W and heading WSW at 8kts. Intensity is estimated at 75kts and 979mb. She is forecast to continue westward and to intensify further, perhaps to a CAT2 hurricane by tomorrow. At this time, it appears she is no risk to land, perhaps Newfoundland in about a week if anything. As as aside... something to keep in mind when viewing an IR image of Kate: the cloud tops may not appear as intense as what you might see in a hurricane at lower latitudes. However, a lower tropopause at higher latitudes means that the cloud top temps CAN'T get as cold, but the tops are still hitting the tropopause. The disturbance in the southern Gulf was finally upgraded to TS Larry at 03Z today based on satellite estimates and aircraft recon... the 12th named storm of the season. At 15Z today, TS Larry was located at 21.0N 93.5W and stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 45kts and the MSLP is 1003mb. The forecast is for very gradual strengthening and to remain nearly stationary. Although poorly organized now, SSTs and vertical shear are favorable for development. However, if and when he intensifies and winds increase, being stationary will only stir up more cool water from below, inhibiting intensificiation. We could be watching Larry in the southern Gulf for many days to come.
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