02 October 2003

Kate strengthens, Larry forms in the Gulf...

Hurricane Kate appears very healthy on satellite imagery.  Outflow is
not ideal, but there is a defined eye and cold cloud tops over the
eyewall.  As of 15Z she was at 30.0N 44.1W and heading WSW at 8kts. 
Intensity is estimated at 75kts and 979mb.  She is forecast to continue
westward and to intensify further, perhaps to a CAT2 hurricane by
tomorrow.  At this time, it appears she is no risk to land, perhaps
Newfoundland in about a week if anything.  As as aside... something to
keep in mind when viewing an IR image of Kate: the cloud tops may not
appear as intense as what you might see in a hurricane at lower
latitudes.  However, a lower tropopause at higher latitudes means that
the cloud top temps CAN'T get as cold, but the tops are still hitting
the tropopause.

The disturbance in the southern Gulf was finally upgraded to TS Larry at
03Z today based on satellite estimates and aircraft recon... the 12th
named storm of the season.  At 15Z today, TS Larry was located at 21.0N
93.5W and stationary.  Maximum sustained winds are 45kts and the MSLP is
1003mb.  The forecast is for very gradual strengthening and to remain
nearly stationary.  Although poorly organized now, SSTs and vertical
shear are favorable for development.  However, if and when he
intensifies and winds increase, being stationary will only stir up more
cool water from below, inhibiting intensificiation.  We could be
watching Larry in the southern Gulf for many days to come.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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