Isidore spent all of Monday over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and did indeed complete a small cyclonic loop there, exiting the coast just miles west of where he entered. The inner core convection is virtually gone and the warm core aloft has collapsed, but there are still active spiral bands. The low-level circulation is immense, spanning over 2000 km (1400 miles) now... somewhat reminiscent of Floyd '99. At 15Z today, he was located at 22.1N 90.0W and tracking NNW at 7kts. The intensity is rather weak at 50kts and 987mb, but that will change now that he's over the warm Gulf waters. The forecast calls for strengthening up to a moderate CAT1 hurricane, and landfall in central LA Thursday morning (a bit east of my 9/20 forecast of Lake Charles, LA). If the storm intensifies more rapidly than expected, the situation would become much more serious (recall Opal '95 at this same time of year). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula, the southern coast along the Bay of Campeche, and parts of the U.S. coast from extreme western FL panhandle westward to near Galveston, TX. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the MS and LA coasts. At 15Z, TS Kyle was located at 30.3N 51.1W and moving SW at 7kts. This motion will take him over warmer SSTs, allowing for intensification. Winds are 45kts with a MSLP of 1000mb. The convective patterns have improved lately, vertical shear is moderate (not negligible, but not too strong), and as mentioned, SSTs will be warming, perhaps to the 28-28.5C mark. Based on this reasoning, Kyle is expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow night. It might be close race to see if Isidore, Kyle, or Lili makes it to hurricane status first! TS Lili has maintained a cold CDO the past 24 hours and is getting better organized. At 15Z, she was at 13.2N 65.6W and tracking W at 14kts. She is nearly at hurricane strength with 60kt winds and 1004mb MSLP. The storm is expected to turn more NW-erly in the near future, taking it over Haiti and extreme eastern Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the western half of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and it's likely that Haiti will issue a Hurricane Watch for its southern coast shortly. Elsewhere, there's a small tropical wave at 18N 39W. It has a 1015mb Low associated with it but shear is quite high (30-40 kts), so it's not an immediate concern.
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