27 September 2002

Isidore still a rain maker, Kyle still a small hurricane, Lili regains TS status.

Isidore continues to dump copious amounts of rain over his path, now
with the heaviest over OH and PA, but will spread into NY and New
England during the day. Flooding, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes
can be expected today in KY, VA, WV, PA, NJ, CT, and southern NY.

Hurricane Kyle continues to spin out in the central Atlantic southeast
of Bermuda. He has lost the mature appearance (eye, defined spiral
bands, etc) and is now a rather ragged hurricane.  At 15Z, Kyle was at
26.9N 60.7W and drifting WSW at 4kts.  Maximum sustained winds are still
75kts and the central pressue is 980mb.  The long-term forecast is
curious.  The ridge that has been over him -and responsible for the lack
of steering flow- may end up eventually nudging him along its periphery
and toward the U.S. east coast.  Even if this is the case, it's MANY
days off, because over the next few days, he's expected to stall with
little change in intensity (fluctuations here and there, but no real

At 15Z yesterday, NHC had ceased writing advisories on Lili, as she had
apparently degenerated into an open wave.  However, aircraft flights
into the system had shown that by 03Z today, a low-level circulation had
reformed and she was upgraded to TD Lili.  Then at 15Z today, she was
upgraded to TS Lili and shows signs of continued organization.  She has
a very cold CDO and the microwave imagery is showing an established
circulation as well.  As of 15Z, she was located at 16.3N 74.8W and
tracking WNW at 6kts.  Intensity is 35kts and 1005mb.  A Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for Jamaica.  The forecast is for gradual
strengthening, reaching minimal hurricane by Monday morning just south
of central Cuba.  Given the forecast track and history of storms this
season, I would tend to delay that by a bit, to perhaps Tuesday
morning.  She is expected to enter the Gulf, and if the long-range
models are at all correct, she should continue the WNW track toward the
TX coast.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave that exited the African coast yesterday is
now at about 9N 25W (south of the Cape Verde Islands) and shows some
hint of organization, but this area is not very climatologically favored
for development this late in the season.  However, shear is low and SSTs
are warm, so if the convection can organize, it could become a TD in the
next couple days.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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