Isidore continues to dump copious amounts of rain over his path, now with the heaviest over OH and PA, but will spread into NY and New England during the day. Flooding, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes can be expected today in KY, VA, WV, PA, NJ, CT, and southern NY. Hurricane Kyle continues to spin out in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda. He has lost the mature appearance (eye, defined spiral bands, etc) and is now a rather ragged hurricane. At 15Z, Kyle was at 26.9N 60.7W and drifting WSW at 4kts. Maximum sustained winds are still 75kts and the central pressue is 980mb. The long-term forecast is curious. The ridge that has been over him -and responsible for the lack of steering flow- may end up eventually nudging him along its periphery and toward the U.S. east coast. Even if this is the case, it's MANY days off, because over the next few days, he's expected to stall with little change in intensity (fluctuations here and there, but no real trend). At 15Z yesterday, NHC had ceased writing advisories on Lili, as she had apparently degenerated into an open wave. However, aircraft flights into the system had shown that by 03Z today, a low-level circulation had reformed and she was upgraded to TD Lili. Then at 15Z today, she was upgraded to TS Lili and shows signs of continued organization. She has a very cold CDO and the microwave imagery is showing an established circulation as well. As of 15Z, she was located at 16.3N 74.8W and tracking WNW at 6kts. Intensity is 35kts and 1005mb. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica. The forecast is for gradual strengthening, reaching minimal hurricane by Monday morning just south of central Cuba. Given the forecast track and history of storms this season, I would tend to delay that by a bit, to perhaps Tuesday morning. She is expected to enter the Gulf, and if the long-range models are at all correct, she should continue the WNW track toward the TX coast. Elsewhere, a tropical wave that exited the African coast yesterday is now at about 9N 25W (south of the Cape Verde Islands) and shows some hint of organization, but this area is not very climatologically favored for development this late in the season. However, shear is low and SSTs are warm, so if the convection can organize, it could become a TD in the next couple days.Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
27 September 2002
Isidore still a rain maker, Kyle still a small hurricane, Lili regains TS status.
Posted by at 12:39 PM