At 15Z today, the final advisory was issued on TD Edouard. The remnants are being absorbed into TS Fay. At 21Z yesterday, aircraft recon found a closed circulation in the area of disturbed weather in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and TD6 was born. Six hours later, it was upgraded to TS Fay, the 6th named storm of the season, based on both aircraft observations and satellite estimates. The convective pattern has been improving consistently, with the deepest convection near the ill-defined low-level circulation. At 15Z today, Fay was located at 27.9N 95.0W and drifting west at 2kts. Maximum sustained winds have reached 50kts with MSLP of 1001mb. The bulk of the convection is to the east and north of the center, but the center is not easily found, so it could shift to match the convection. Conditions are favorable for further strengthening, and she'd be a fine candidate for the season's first hurricane if she weren't so close to land. Even so, if "rapid" intensification occurs, she could reach hurricane strength before landfall, which is expected to be early Saturday morning near Palacios, TX. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western half of LA's coast through much of TX's coast and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for parts of the central TX coast... see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/AL0602W.GIF for NHC's graphic. There is a broad area of convection over the West Indes that many of the models develop over the next 3 days or so. If something should form from this, the general track is northward toward the NC coast, then NE as it's whisked away by a trough. The nearly convectionless vortex near 22N 45W is still holding together, but has shown no signs of development. It has a 1015mb Low associated with it, and is moving west at 10kts. The large tropical wave exiting Africa that I mentioned yesterday is still very impressive. It's centered at about 9N 14W and has a 1010mb Low, moving west at 10kts. It's got a lot of relative vorticity (strong low-level circulation) and an anticyclone aloft to assist the outflow. Vertical shear will remain low if it maintains its westerly course, but there is a deep trough to its north, so any northward deviation in track could result in it being sheared apart.
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