06 September 2002

Edouard dissipates, Fay is born, Cape Verde area shaping up.

At 15Z today, the final advisory was issued on TD Edouard.  The remnants
are  being absorbed into TS Fay.

At 21Z yesterday, aircraft recon found a closed circulation in the area
of disturbed weather in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and TD6 was born. 
Six hours later, it was upgraded to TS Fay, the 6th named storm of the
season, based on both aircraft observations and satellite estimates. 
The convective pattern has been improving consistently, with the deepest
convection near the ill-defined low-level circulation.  At 15Z today,
Fay was located at 27.9N 95.0W and drifting west at 2kts.  Maximum
sustained winds have reached 50kts with MSLP of 1001mb.  The bulk of the
convection is to the east and north of the center, but the center is not
easily found, so it could shift to match the convection.

Conditions are favorable for further strengthening, and she'd be a fine
candidate for the season's first hurricane if she weren't so close to
land.  Even so, if "rapid" intensification occurs, she could reach
hurricane strength before landfall, which is expected to be early
Saturday morning near Palacios, TX.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the western half of LA's coast  through much of TX's coast
and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for parts of the central TX coast...
see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/AL0602W.GIF for NHC's

There is a broad area of convection over the West Indes that many of the
models develop over the next 3 days or so.  If something should form
from this, the general track is northward toward the NC coast, then NE
as it's whisked away by a trough.

The nearly convectionless vortex near 22N 45W is still holding together,
but has shown no signs of development.  It has a 1015mb Low associated
with it, and is moving west at 10kts.

The large tropical wave exiting Africa that I mentioned yesterday is
still very impressive.  It's centered at about 9N 14W and has a 1010mb
Low, moving west at 10kts.  It's got a lot of relative vorticity (strong
low-level circulation) and an anticyclone aloft to assist the outflow. 
Vertical shear will remain low if it maintains its westerly course, but
there is a deep trough to its north, so any northward deviation in track
could result in it being sheared apart.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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