16 September 2002

Hanna made landfall, TD10 came and went, but is making a comeback.

Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall on the MS/AL border at 14Z on 9/14
with about 40kt winds and disorganized rain (not an eyewall or
well-formed spiral bands).  The only serious effect besides some minor
localized flooding was a wind damage report from Mobile County, AL where
"several trees were blown down".

TD10 formed at 21Z on 9/14 just a few miles off the eastern Venezuela
coast (very low latitude), tracked WNW along the coast and dissipated
back to an open wave on the 15th at 21Z.  However, it is still a key
feature in the Caribbean, presently located at about 17N 73W (just south
of Hispaniola) and moving WNW at 20kts.  Conditions are now marginal for
development, but will be improving, so re-development is possible, or
even likely.  It's still got a lot of centralized relative vorticity
(curvature of the wind field), moderate upper-level divergence (decent
outflow), and healthy convection.  As evident in the satellite imagery,
there is westerly shear, caused by an upper-level anticyclone to its

The computer models are largely in agreement on strengthening it, and
also that Cuba and then Florida will be the target areas.  Some keep it
fairly weak, while some have it reaching CAT3 status by landfall (for
those of you who check the models closely, the 06Z run of GFDL was
fascinating, ask for details if interested).  Should this reform and
reach TS strength, the next name on deck is Isidore.  Just FYI, the last
time we had Isidore was in late September 1996, and she reached CAT3
intensity in the central Atlantic.  The time before that was early-mid
September 1990, and she reached CAT2 intensity, also tracking northward
across the central Atlantic. 

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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