TS Kyle continued to weaken in a high shear environment on Saturday, but is forecast to make a comeback. The big story with him is the motion... there has been very little his whole existence! Recall that he formed on 9/20, and is still around, and probably will be for another 5+ days, still no threat to land in that time. Although the low-level center has been exposed for a while, centralized convection is making a comeback this morning, indicating that perhaps the shear is lessening. As of 15Z, he was at 27.7N 64.8W (520km S of Bermuda) and stationary. Max winds are 40kts and the MSLP is 1002mb. The forecast is for gradual strengthening and an eastward drift. Lili has kept a reasonable appearance on satellite, but is passing over waters surrounded by Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba, all very mountainous, and that has inhibited her intensification (the center has managed to weave between all of these islands, a remarkable feat in itself). However, all signs point to her being able to regain strength once she clears the terrain. At 15Z today, TS Lili was at 18.7N 77.6W (between Cuba and western Jamaica) and heading W at 6kts. Intensity is 45kts and 994mb. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Grand Cayman and central Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cayman Brac, Little Cayman, Jamaica and eastern Cuba. She is forecast to become the 4th hurricane of the season on Tuesday morning. The GFDL model has quite the ironic track forecast for her: landfall near Lake Charles, LA on Thursday morning as a CAT3 hurricane. This would put New Orleans just to the east of the center which would be catastrophic, not to mention that they just had a TS landfall last Thursday morning at the same place. We'll see how the next couple of days pan out, but by Tuesday, evacuations need to begin, so hopefully the models will continue to converge on a solution (so far they do). AVN, the most reliable track forecaster this season, goes for landfall on New Orleans on Thursday morning. The tropical wave that was near the Cape Verde Islands on Friday is now 1300 miles WSW of those islands (about 12N 35W) and moving W at 12kts. It has a 1012mb Low, Vertical shear is fairly high, the vorticity center is elongated, but the SSTs are warm and as it heads west, it may take advantage of improving conditions.
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