05 September 2002

Edouard makes landfall as a very weak Tropical Storm.

At about 8pm Wednesday night, Edouard finally made landfall on Daytona
Beach, FL as a 35kt TS.  There was barely any convection, so it was
basically a minor wind event.  Since then, he has continued to drift WSW
across the Florida peninsula, weaken to a TD, and has re-entered the
Gulf.  Given the current state of the storm and the very strong vertical
shear, chances for redevelopment are slim to none.  At 15Z today, TD
Edouard was located at 28.7N 83.0W and moving WSW at 7kts.

Elsewhere, there's a broad area of persistent convection in the
northwest Gulf, with an embedded 1009mb Low at 27N 96W.  Conditions are
favorable for this to develop, but its proximity to land might inhibit
that.  It does have an anticyclone aloft, and a fair amount of relative
vorticity, so it's more than the average blob of convection over warm

Also, a tiny vortex that I've been watching since Tuesday morning is
becoming more interesting now.  Located at about 20N 42W, it's got a
well-defined low-level circulation (1016mb Low), but lacks deep
convection.  Although the shear is currently fairly high (35kts), it
should lessen significantly by the weekend, allowing the system to
perhaps get better organized as it tracks west at 10kts.

Lastly, the tropical wave exiting Africa now is one of the more
impressive ones of the season.  All indicators I typically look at are
favorable for it to develop fairly far east.  The convection is centered
over about 12N 12W.

FYI, the next names on deck are Fay, Gustav, and Hanna, not that I'm
anticipating that all three of these items of interest will become named
storms.  The climatological peak of activity in the Atlantic is Sept 10,
so perhaps this flurry of action will help verify that.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment