07 September 2002

Fay makes landfall, TD7 forms in central Atlantic, two other areas are suspect.

TS Fay finally hit TX, after drifting and meandering off the coast for a
while.  It was thought that she might reach hurricane strength before
making landfall, but convection was pretty scarce at critical times. 
She hit near Palacios, TX this morning at 12Z as a 45kt storm, with the
most significant effect being the rain.  Some places along the coast
received over a foot of rain on Friday night.  This scenario is similar
to Allison last year, but much more benign... recall that Allison did
nearly $5 billion in damage and killed 41 people, yet was never more
than a weak Tropical Storm.  Fay is now a Depression, and the 15Z
advisory places her at 29.2N 97.3W and moving WNW at 6kts.  Maximum
winds are 30kts with a MSLP of 1002mb.  The forecast is obviously for
continued weakening.

At 15Z today, TD7 formed from the small vortex in the open Atlantic.  It
seemed that all it was lacking was convection, and once it acquired that
and kept it, it was able to strengthen a bit... both buoys and satellite
estimates provided evidence that it should be a TD.  At 21Z it was
located at 24.7N 48.6W and tracking WNW at 8kts.  Intesity is 30kts and
1015mb (VERY weak).  It's in 15kts of westerly shear and over 27.5°C
SST.  NHC's forecast out to three days is to maintain intensity.

The broad area of disturbed weather over the West Indes that I mentioned
yesterday is still very interesting, but in no rush to organize. It's in
a favorable area though, and will be watched.  It could become TD8 by
the end of the weekend.

Also, the tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands is not looking as
robust as in days past, but should not be overlooked either.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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