14 August 2009

TD2 dissipates, easterly wave getting organized...

TD2 succumbed to the shear and dry air and is now just a tiny low-level cloud swirl with intermittent bursts of convection.  It will be watched for regeneration though, but is not much of a concern in the near future.

On first glance, the easterly wave behind TD2's remnants looks very similar, but it is a much larger circulation, has its primary inflow from the south rather than the north, and the moderate vertical shear will be letting up within the next 12-18 hours.  Given these conditions, it is forecast to gradually intensify as it heads W-WNW.  At its current speed, it would be near the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, quite possibly as a hurricane.
Although it's presently only 600 miles west of Africa, long-range models (8-10day) are already painting an ominous picture for the US coast by late next weekend.  It's too far out to say exactly where, but the timing at least serves as a heads-up for coastal residents.

Recall from my update three days ago that the last time the first named storm formed this late in the season was Aug 17, 1992: Andrew.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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