13 August 2009

TD2 barely holding on...

Since yesterday, TD2 has seemingly ingested quite a bit of that stable dry air I mentioned, and is now nothing more than a low-level swirl of clouds.  The small circulation is also especially prone to even moderate vertical wind shear, which it's experiencing.  These conditions combine to give a small likelihood that TD2 will reach TS intensity in the foreseeable future.
As of 15Z today, the intensity was estimated at 25kts and 1008mb and it was located about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

On the other hand, the easterly wave on its heels still looks like something to keep a close eye on.  It's presently about 250 miles SSE of the Cape Verde islands and tracking W at 12kts.  It's still disorganized, but has a very definite circulation, persistent convection scattered around the center, low vertical shear, 28C SSTs, and is embedded in a large pocket of deep-layer moisture.
This disturbance is expected to gradually develop and head WNW toward the Caribbean over the next 5 days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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