Three days ago, Bill was a Depression. Now it's a 90kt hurricane on a strengthening trend. An reconnaissance aircraft left St. Croix this morning to investigate the storm, and will be arriving in the eyewall within a couple hours of this writing. At that point, the intensity could be adjusted (the transition from satellite-only intensity estimates to in-situ aircraft measurements can sometimes result in a false intensity change if you're looking just at the numbers).
At 15Z today, Bill was located at 15.9N 51.2W and tracking WNW at 14kts. Intensity was 90kts and 963mb. The track will follow a WNW trajectory for the next few days, gradually becoming more NW then N as it heads into a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 4-5 days. While this scenario spares the US coast, it puts Bermuda in the target zone this weekend. The storm is expected to intensify further, reaching CAT3 or 4 status in the next couple of days.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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