31 August 2009

Disturbance closing in on Leeward Islands...

The easterly wave I mentioned on Friday has still not been upgraded to a Depression or Storm, but certainly looks like a weak Tropical Storm on satellite imagery.  It is now located about 600 miles east of the southern Leeward Islands and heading WNW at 12kts.  Nearly every computer model forecasts it to intensify to a hurricane by mid-late week.  SSTs in its path are 28-29C, and vertical wind shear is minimal (and expected to remain so for several days).  The next name on the list is Erika.

Danny weakened as it approached the coast Friday night into Saturday and NHC ceased writing advisories on it before it was even near the US or Canada.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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