TD15 which formed southeast of Bermuda yesterday morning has rapidly intensified, and is now Hurricane Juan. The central pressure fell 19mb in the past 24 hours, and the winds increased by 35kts. Also, he developed a small eye which has since covered over with convective debris. As of 15Z today, Juan was at 32.2N 62.0W and moving slowly N at 7kts. Maximum sustained winds are 65kts with a MSLP of 987mb. He is expected to strengthen a bit more, then rapidly degenerate as he nears Nova Scotia on Sunday, being absorbed into a midlatitude trough and make an extratropical transition. Juan is the 5th hurricane of the season. At 21Z yesterday, the area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles was upgraded to TD16, and it is slowly organizing. At 15Z today, it was located at 15.9N 40.7W and tracking NW at 13kts. Intensity is a weak 30kts and 1007mb. It's battling some shear, and deep convection has been sparce. It's forecast to continue gradually intensifying, reaching TS status later today, but falling short of hurricane strength because of the increasing shear. The track should be generally northwestward, recurving by 50W. Elsewhere, the area I've been mentioning in the western Caribbean Sea continues to fester... environmental pressures are falling and convection is becoming more concentrated. The focus of action is at about 17N 84W.
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