26 September 2003

TD15 becomes Hurricane Juan, TD16 forms...

TD15 which formed southeast of Bermuda yesterday morning has rapidly
intensified, and is now Hurricane Juan.  The central pressure fell 19mb
in the past 24 hours, and the winds increased by 35kts.  Also, he
developed a small eye which has since covered over with convective
debris.  As of 15Z today, Juan was at 32.2N 62.0W and moving slowly N at
7kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 65kts with a MSLP of 987mb.  He is
expected to strengthen a bit more, then rapidly degenerate as he nears
Nova Scotia on Sunday, being absorbed into a midlatitude trough and make
an extratropical transition.  Juan is the 5th hurricane of the season.

At 21Z yesterday, the area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser
Antilles was upgraded to TD16, and it is slowly organizing.  At 15Z
today, it was located at 15.9N 40.7W and tracking NW at 13kts. 
Intensity is a weak 30kts and 1007mb.  It's battling some shear, and
deep convection has been sparce.  It's forecast to continue gradually
intensifying, reaching TS status later today, but falling short of
hurricane strength because of the increasing shear.  The track should be
generally northwestward, recurving by 50W.

Elsewhere, the area I've been mentioning in the western Caribbean Sea
continues to fester... environmental pressures are falling and
convection is becoming more concentrated.  The focus of action is at
about 17N 84W.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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