As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian is still a major hurricane, and just 95 nautical miles south of Bermuda. At its distance and speed, landfall will occur by 6pm EDT today as a major hurricane. Needless to say, the Hurricane Warning is still in effect for Bermuda. Latest position was 30.8N 65.4W and tracking N at 15kts. Intensity is 105kts and 951mb. It is expected to continue north making a direct hit on Bermuda later today with sustained winds of 105kts and gusts to 130kts. They are anticipating up to 10" of rain and 10' storm surge. Winds are already affecting the island and taking down tree limbs. The northeast quadrant of the storm could have hurricane-force winds extending 100 nautical miles from the center. Shortly after passing by Bermuda, the mid-latitude trough will pick it up and shear it apart, and the extra-tropical transition will commence. Fabian has now racked up 5.75 Intense Hurricane Days, and will tie 3rd place in the record books at 21Z today, just as he's hitting Bermuda. At 09Z today, TD12 was upgraded to TS Henri, the 7th named storm of the season. At 15Z, Henri (pronounced ahn-ree, not hen-ree... it's a spanish name) was located at 28.3N 83.9W and moving at 7kts. Aircraft recon indicates max winds of 40kts now, and a MSLP of 997mb. Southwesterly vertical shear will probably inhibit much further intensification as he drifts toward the Florida coast today. Landfall is expected very late tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday as a Tropical Storm. A TS Warning is in effect from Englewood to the Aucilla River. Given that he'll be over land and in some shear, the forecast for maintaining intensity then weakening by the end of the weekend. You can monitor the progress of Henri as he approaches the coast from Tallahassee's radar (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktlh.shtml) or Tampa's radar (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml). The tropical wave I've been mentioning for the past 4 days or so continues to head west and get better organized. It's now at about 13N 29W, or 400 miles WSW of the Cape Verdes and tracking W at 7kts. The embedded Low is now down to 1009mb and development into TD13 is likely today. The satellite presentation in both IR and VIS is rather impressive, and an active microwave scatterometer (SeaWinds) did find a closed but elongated surface circulation during a 08Z overpass. Although the models favor this system, the location of the subtropical High is pretty far east, so any Cape Verde storms that do form will be recurved like Fabian, if not sooner.
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