05 September 2003

Fabian nearly at Bermuda, TD12 becomes TS Henri, and Cape Verde wave getting better organized...

As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian is still a major hurricane, and just
95 nautical miles south of Bermuda.  At its distance and speed, landfall
will occur by 6pm EDT today as a major hurricane.  Needless to say, the
Hurricane Warning is still in effect for Bermuda.  Latest position was
30.8N 65.4W and tracking N at 15kts.  Intensity is 105kts and 951mb.  It
is expected to continue north making a direct hit on Bermuda later today
with sustained winds of 105kts and gusts to 130kts.  They are
anticipating up to 10" of rain and 10' storm surge.  Winds are already
affecting the island and taking down tree limbs.

The northeast quadrant of the storm could have hurricane-force winds
extending 100 nautical miles from the center.  Shortly after passing by
Bermuda, the mid-latitude trough will pick it up and shear it apart, and
the extra-tropical transition will commence.  Fabian has now racked up
5.75 Intense Hurricane Days, and will tie 3rd place in the record books
at 21Z today, just as he's hitting Bermuda.

At 09Z today, TD12 was upgraded to TS Henri, the 7th named storm of the
season.  At 15Z, Henri (pronounced ahn-ree, not hen-ree... it's a
spanish name) was located at 28.3N 83.9W and moving at 7kts.  Aircraft
recon indicates max winds of 40kts now, and a MSLP of 997mb. 
Southwesterly vertical shear will probably inhibit much further
intensification as he drifts toward the Florida coast today.  Landfall
is expected very late tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday
as a Tropical Storm.  A TS Warning is in effect from Englewood to the
Aucilla River.  Given that he'll be over land and in some shear, the
forecast for maintaining intensity then weakening by the end of the
weekend.  You can monitor the progress of Henri as he approaches the
coast from Tallahassee's radar
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktlh.shtml) or Tampa's
radar (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml).

The tropical wave I've been mentioning for the past 4 days or so
continues to head west and get better organized.  It's now at about 13N
29W, or 400 miles WSW of the Cape Verdes and tracking W at 7kts.  The
embedded Low is now down to 1009mb and development into TD13 is likely
today.  The satellite presentation in both IR and VIS is rather
impressive, and an active microwave scatterometer (SeaWinds) did find a
closed but elongated surface circulation during a 08Z overpass. 
Although the models favor this system, the location of the subtropical
High is pretty far east, so any Cape Verde storms that do form will be
recurved like Fabian, if not sooner.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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