04 September 2003

Fabian still a major hurricane, TD12 forms, eastern Atlantic very interesting...

As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian has accumulated 4.75 Intense Hurricane
Days.  Previous record holders are Gert '99 (6), Edouard '96 (7.5), and
Luis '95 (8).  It seems probable that Fabian will surpass Gert, but
probably not Edouard or Luis, leaving him in third place.  For
comparison, there were a TOTAL of 2.5 Intense Hurricane Days during the
entire 2002 season.

Also as of 15Z, Fabian was located at 25.2N 64.0W and tracking NNW at
10kts.  The eye is 25nm in diameter now, and intensity is 105kts and
944mb.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely as he begins the
recurvature process, then significant weakening once he interacts with
the approaching trough.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda;
they are anticipating a direct hit on Friday evening with sustained
winds of 110kts and gusts to 135kts.  Very large swells from this storm
should begin reaching the US east coast later today and Friday.

After passing Bermuda, Fabian will interact with a trough and make the
extra-tropical transition, losing his tropical characteristics and
zipping off to the north central Atlantic.  Baroclinic enhancement can
sometimes temporarily intensity the storm, but at the same time, its
demise is never far behind.

At 21Z yesterday, TD12 formed in the eastern Gulf from that area of
disturbed weather I'd been talking about for a few days.  Although still
poorly organized, it's nearly stationary and in very favorable
conditions, likely leading to further development.  At 15Z today, TD12
was at 27.9N 87.1W and has 30kt sustained winds and a 1010mb MSLP.  It
is forecast to become a named storm early Friday as it drifts northeast
toward the FL panhandle.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from
Englewood to Indian Pass, FL and landfall is expected to hit early
Saturday morning.  Should this get named, its name will be Henri.

The tropical wave I mentioned yesterday near the Cape Verde Islands is
still there and still a candidate for development.  It's at about 12N
27W and has a 1010mb Low that's tracking very slowly westward.  The next
number/name on deck is 13/Isabel (assuming TD12 goes to Henri).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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