Hurricane Fabian's intensity has changed little in the past 48 hours, and is still a Category 4 storm (with 3.0 Intense Hurricane Days racked up so far). The eye is very small at 20 nautical miles in diameter, and there is some evidence of slight westerly vertical wind shear. At 15Z today, Fabian was located at 20.3N 60.4W and tracking WNW at 9kts. Intensity is 120kts and 945mb. It is expected to slowly weaken over the next few days, but still be a major hurricane. The forecast track has remained basically unchanged, still recurving just west of Bermuda. I suspect Bermuda will be in for a rough ride on Friday especially if it ends up on the front-right quadrant of a major hurricane. The area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday in the western Caribbean has lost much of its deep convection, but the broad circulation is still present and conditions are favorable for development... assuming convection comes back. There is a new Low that formed within a tropical wave west of the Cape Verde Islands at about 14N 33W. It has made some progress today in organization and will be watched this week for development.
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