02 September 2003

Fabian still a CAT4 hurricane...

Hurricane Fabian's intensity has changed little in the past 48 hours,
and is still a Category 4 storm (with 3.0 Intense Hurricane Days racked
up so far).  The eye is very small at 20 nautical miles in diameter, and
there is some evidence of slight westerly vertical wind shear.

At 15Z today, Fabian was located at 20.3N 60.4W and tracking WNW at
9kts.  Intensity is 120kts and 945mb.  It is expected to slowly weaken
over the next few days, but still be a major hurricane.  The forecast
track has remained basically unchanged, still recurving just west of
Bermuda.  I suspect Bermuda will be in for a rough ride on Friday
especially if it ends up on the front-right quadrant of a major

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday in the western
Caribbean has lost much of its deep convection, but the broad
circulation is still present and conditions are favorable for
development... assuming convection comes back.

There is a new Low that formed within a tropical wave west of the Cape
Verde Islands at about 14N 33W.  It has made some progress today in
organization and will be watched this week for development.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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