Fiona strengthened on Sunday and became the season's third hurricane. It has been spreading torrential rain and strong gusty wind across the entire island, and it's not moving very quickly, so these conditions will linger into Monday. Similarly, eastern Dominican Republic will experience deteriorating conditions Sunday into Monday though it will be on the weaker western half of the hurricane. There's a very high risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides as the slow-moving hurricane drifts by. The eye will clip the southwest corner of Puerto Rico on Sunday afternoon.
The storm will manage to squeak through the Mona Passage, the gap between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, which gives it minimal exposure to mountainous land masses and minimal disruption to its circulation. Fiona is now forecast to become the season's first major hurricane once it exits the Caribbean and heads toward Bermuda. The last hurricane to pass through the Mona Passage was Hortense in 1996, and that storm has a lot in common with Fiona.
Models are now in strong agreement on a close encounter with Bermuda on Thursday, and potentially when Fiona is a major hurricane. The last few major hurricanes to pass within 100 miles of the island were Humberto (2019), Nicole (2016), Gonzalo (2014), and Fabian (2003).
Elsewhere, the Atlantic is quiet.
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