07 September 2022

Danielle and Earl both hurricanes, but none in the tropics yet this year

Hurricane Danielle is northwest of the Azores and Earl was upgraded to the season's second hurricane on Wednesday morning well south of Bermuda.  Curiously, as we head into the second week of September there has not been a hurricane in the tropics yet and there's no hint of one in the foreseeable future!


Danielle is a Category 1 hurricane up at about 44°N and is about to transition to an extratropical cyclone.  It barely moved for the first few days of its life, and it now appears that it will spend its post-tropical life not going very far either.


If this seems freakishly far north to still be talking about a hurricane, you're right, it is.  But Danielle has greatly benefitted from anomalously-warm water in the north Atlantic:


Earl became a hurricane just north of the tropics, barely.  It has been facing some substantial vertical wind shear but it managed to reach hurricane status in spite of it.  However, the shear is expected to let up on Thursday and it has a high probability of becoming the season's first major hurricane as it nears Bermuda and then remain a powerful hurricane as it heads north and transitions to an extratropical cyclone this weekend.


Bermuda is under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, and Earl should pass ominously close but to the east of the island on Thursday night.  I have a long updating radar loop from Bermuda available at http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.


Finally, Invest 95L is an easterly wave that's centered about 700 miles west of Cabo Verde.  It is favored to develop at least to a tropical depression in the short-term, but its future is quite uncertain in the longer term.  Models are in decent agreement on this turning to the north by about 50°W and struggling to ever become much more than a low-end tropical storm.  But if it manages to make it that far, the next name on the list is Fiona.


We are heading into the climatological peak of hurricane season, and here's a refresher on what that means and what date(s) you can choose to assign to it: When is the peak of hurricane season? 

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