21 July 2005

TD6 forms near the Bahamas...

In an already record-breaking June/July, it seems the action is not over yet.  A strong tropical wave that exited the African coast on July 10 has finaly achieved a low-level circulation.  As of 21Z, TD6's intensity  as measured by aircraft was 30kts and 1009mb.  It was located at 25.3N 75.4W and tracking WNW at 11kts.

The forecast track is an interesting one... with a lack of steering flow, it should drift northwest and fester north of the Bahamas.  It is also expected to gradually strengthen, perhaps reaching hurricane strength by early next week.  Once named, this will be TS Franklin.

Elsewhere, there's a very large and impressive mid-level circulation in the far west Caribbean that is showing signs of organization.  It should generally move WNW or NW toward the Yucatan then the western Gulf coast (like Emily).  This would become TD7 or TS Gert if named.

Shear and SSTs for both systems are favorable for further development.
I apologize in advance for sending an attachement with this message, but it's quite remarkable.  It's an enhanced infrared image of the western Atlantic showing TD6 near the Bahamas and pre-TD7 south of Cuba.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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