11 July 2005

TD5 still heading toward Lesser Antilles...

First, some more wrap-up on Dennis.  Cuba and Haiti certainly suffered 
the most from this hurricane, with over 30 deaths between the two 
countries.  Cuba lost much of its infrastructure, and some places 
observed over 25" of rain in one day.  The US has just 4 indirect 
deaths (preliminary) associated with the storm, and just over 9" of 
rain as the peak.

TD5 is a small system with several low-level centers.  It remains to be 
seen which will become the dominant one.  Satellite intensity estimates 
show 30kts and 1008mb, and a rough center at 10.6N 46.0W.  Environmental 
conditions are favorable for gradual intensification, and this is 
expected to become TS Emily within the next 24 hours, and Hurricane 
Emily by Thursday afternoon.  The forecast track takes it through the 
central Lesser Antilles, south of Puerto Rico, then over Hispaniola.

Elsewhere, yet another potent tropical wave is tagging behind TD5 at 
about 7N 35W.  Although this is rather far south, it has been sporting 
persistent deep convection and a broad mid-level circulation.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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