18 July 2005

Emily hits Mexico hard...

At about 0630Z today, Emily made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a 
strong CAT4 storm.  The resort island of Cozumel experienced the right 
eyewall directly, then the center passed very near Tulum on the mainland. 
The hurricane weakened to a CAT1 shortly after its encounter with the 
peninsula, and has now entered the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico 
(29-30C), so it is expected to reintensify to a CAT3 storm by the time 
it makes its next and final landfall.

As of 21Z today, the intensity was down to 65kts and 983mb: a pressure 
rise of 35mb in the past 24 hours.  It is located at 22.3N 91.0W and 
tracking WNW at 14kts.  This motion is forecast to continue, but the 
intensity is forecast to increase.  Landfall will occur on the northern 
Mexico coast, just south of the US border, on late Tuesday night into 
early Wednesday morning.  The intensity is a difficult problem, as it 
depends immensely on how rapidly the surface vortex can re-organize 
after its trip over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Right now, it's lacking deep 
convection near the inner core.

The NTC for the season thus far is a whopping 58.2%, smashing the old 
record of 42.6% set in 1966. As a side note, the entire 1997 season had 
an NTC of about 52%, so we've surpassed that... and by August 1!
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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