At about 0630Z today, Emily made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong CAT4 storm. The resort island of Cozumel experienced the right eyewall directly, then the center passed very near Tulum on the mainland. The hurricane weakened to a CAT1 shortly after its encounter with the peninsula, and has now entered the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico (29-30C), so it is expected to reintensify to a CAT3 storm by the time it makes its next and final landfall. As of 21Z today, the intensity was down to 65kts and 983mb: a pressure rise of 35mb in the past 24 hours. It is located at 22.3N 91.0W and tracking WNW at 14kts. This motion is forecast to continue, but the intensity is forecast to increase. Landfall will occur on the northern Mexico coast, just south of the US border, on late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The intensity is a difficult problem, as it depends immensely on how rapidly the surface vortex can re-organize after its trip over the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now, it's lacking deep convection near the inner core. The NTC for the season thus far is a whopping 58.2%, smashing the old record of 42.6% set in 1966. As a side note, the entire 1997 season had an NTC of about 52%, so we've surpassed that... and by August 1!
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