Emily has undergone some major changes in the past 24 hours, both up and down. Since yesterday's update, it reached a peak intensity of 115kts and 952mb (CAT4), and is now down to 90kts and 969mb (CAT2). This weakening is seemingly due to a combination of two primary ingredients: encountering a region of dry mid-level air while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Hurricanes are quite vulnerable while an eyewall replacement is occurring (think of a hermit crab when it moves from a small shell to a larger shell!), and as such, disruptions in atmospheric conditions can make a big impact. That said, it should recover within 12 hours or so and reintensify to a CAT3-4 for landfall on the Yucatan. At 21Z today, Hurricane Emily was located at 14.7N 72.8W and tracking W at 17kts. Intensity is 90kts and 969mb as mentioned earlier. Hurricane Warnings are posted for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. It is forecast to hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday afternoon as a major hurricane, then travel across the VERY WARM Gulf for a couple days before hitting near the US/Mexico border on Tuesday night, also most likely as a major hurricane.Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
15 July 2005
Emily weakens north of Venezuela...
Posted by at 6:44 PM