19 July 2005

Emily rapidly intensifying before final landfall...

Mexico is bracing for its second major hurricane landfall in three days.  
As you recall, the Yucatan Peninsula was hit on Sunday night by CAT4 
Emily, and now, the northern coast of Mexico, just south of Texas, is 
about to get hit by Emily again.  Of great civic concern and academic 
interest is the rapid intensification phase the hurricane is experience 
just hours prior to landfall.  The central pressure fell 24mb in the 
past 12 hours, and 16mb in the past 6 hours.

At 21Z, CAT2 Hurricane Emily was located at 24.3N 95.6W and moving WNW 
at 10kts... about 150 miles from the coast.  This puts landfall in the 
early morning hours on Wednesday.  Latest intensity is 85kts and 956mb, 
and definitely on a strengthening trend.  It could possibly quickly 
reach CAT4 status again in the next 12 hours.  Even Brownsville, TX will 
feel some strong effects from the storm, possibly hurricane-force winds 
and a respectable storm surge.  Oddly, of the 5 named storms this season, 
all 5 have made landfall.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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