Emily has not gotten organized as quickly as forecast, and is still a tropical storm. However, the past few hours have seen explosive convection over the center, and that could be the trigger to intensifying into the second hurricane of the season. TS Emily is presently very near Tobago, and headed for Grenada. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Windward Islands, Tobago, Trinidad, and parts of the eastern Venezuela coast. Intensity as measured by aircraft is 50kts and 1003mb. It's tracking W at 16kts. The long-term forecast takes the storm south of Jamaica and into the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week as a major hurricane. This means that in about one week from now, it could be making landfall somewhere in the Tampico to Houston area. People in the region should be watching the progress of Emily very closely. The strong tropical wave behind Emily that I've been mentioning remains poorly organized, and is not immediately targeted for formation. The wave is located at about 15N 35W. If it does "go", it will become TD6.Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
13 July 2005
Emily hitting the Windward Islands...
Posted by at 6:12 PM