22 September 2004

Jeanne, Karl, and Lisa still churning up the Atlantic...

Jeanne is now a CAT2 hurricane, and is in the process of making a small
loop, eventually heading back toward the west, and forecast to hit the
southeast US in a few days as a hurricane.  As of 21Z today, Hurricane
Jeanne was located about 500 miles east of the Bahamas with an intensity
of 85kts and 967mb.

Karl has been a CAT3/4 hurricane for a while, until this morning when it
was downgraded to a CAT2.  Further weakening is expected as it merges
with a strong mid-latitude system and makes the extratropical
trasition.  Latest intensity is 90kts and 970mb.

Lisa, the one that formed immediately east of Karl, has not moved too
far, and is having great difficulty intensifying; however, only
partially because of Karl's outflow.  The wave just a few degrees to her
east has become much better organized and is in fact looking healthier
than Lisa.  The ensuing binary interaction will be interesting to watch,
and see which vortex is victorious.  Lisa is still a Tropical Storm with
45kt maximum sustained winds and 997mb MSLP.

A fragment of Ivan dropped down along the east coast, crossed Florida,
and is now in the central Gulf of Mexico.  It has persistent deep
convection, but is strongly sheared right now.  However, if the shear
decreases, Ivan could make a comeback, but would almost certainly get a
new name.  IF it becomes something of note, it could affect LA or TX in
the next few days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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