13 September 2004

Ivan passing by Cuba as CAT5 storm, TD11 forms...

At 03Z today, Ivan was upgraded to a CAT5 hurricane for the third time. 
The latest aircraft recon found maximum sustained winds of 140kts and
the MSLP is 912mb (910mb was found since the advisory).

It's presently just a few miles off the western tip of Cuba and heading
northwest through the Yucatan Channel.  A Gulf Coast landfall is
inevitable; the obvious question is WHERE.  The primary threat region
appears to be between New Orleans and Tampa, with the FL panhandle in
the highest risk zone.  Timing would place it near the US coast
Wednesday night.  Luckily, the Keys residents who evacuated earlier are
being allowed back in due to the unexpected westerly track over the
weekend (always better returning home after a miss than a hit!).  

This major storm has killed at least 62 people so far: 17 on Jamaica, 37
in Grenada, 4 in Venezuela, and 4 in Dominican Republic.  Ivan has now
spent more time as a major hurricane than Frances, and is possibly on
its way to breaking the all-time record.

At 21Z, a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles was upgraded to
TD11.  It exited the African coast on Sept 7 and is now nearing
Guadeloupe in the southern Leeward Island chain.  As of 21Z, TD11 was
located at 16.0N 60.4W and tracking WNW at 10kts.  It's expected to
track over or near the British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, perhaps parts of Hispaniola, then the Bahamas.

Current intensity is 30kts and 1010mb.  The immense outflow from Ivan
will likely keep pretty high shear over TD11 for the next couple days,
but further intensification is forecast once the shear and landmasses
are in the past.  If named, this will be TS Jeanne.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment