17 September 2004

Ivan still decaying, Jeanne weakens, Karl forms...

The large circulation of Ivan's remnants are still producing heavy rain
and tornadoes over much of the eastern US.  The total death toll is at
about 75 people in the Caribbean and US.  Also of great interest is that
Ivan has set the all-time record for amount of time spent as a major
hurricane: 10 days.  This will certainly be one of the most memorable
storms in history, joining the ranks of Camille '69, Frederic '79, Allen
'80, Hugo '89, Andrew '92, and Opal '95.

Jeanne had stalled over Hispaniola, but is now starting to drift WNW
over the open ocean.  This basically shredded the integrity of the
former hurricane, and is now a Tropical Depression, with all convection
to the east of the low-level center.  So far 6 deaths have resulted from
the flooding in Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.  As of 21Z, TD
Jeanne was at 20.2N 71.8W with maximum sustained winds of 1002mb.  The
forecast is for slow weakening, but perhaps not even reaching hurricane
strength again.  Still, residents from FL to NC should watch its
progress closely.

At 03Z today, TD12 was upgraded to TS Karl, and it's still on an
intensifying trend.  Latest intensity is 55kts and 994mb.  Convection
and banding have improved, and Karl is expected to become the 7th
hurricane of the season within 12-18 hours (then perhaps the 5th major
hurricane within 3 days).  The good news is that it will almost
certainly recurve into the open ocean well before reaching even the
Lesser Antilles, let alone the US.

As of 21Z today, the season is 66% more active than an entire full
hurricane season, and there are still 10 weeks to go.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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