20 September 2004

Jeanne a hurricane again, Karl still a major hurricane, TD13 upgraded...

At 21Z today, TS Jeanne was upgraded to a hurricane again, based on
aircraft recon (recall the last time she was a hurricane was 4.5 days
ago as she made landfall on Hispaniola, and has since killed over 250
people on that island).  Current location is 27.4N 71.2W and heading NE
at 6kts.  The storm is under weak steering flow, and that makes the
forecast track very challenging, so for the most part, the long-range
forecast is for it to basically stall, but maintain hurricane
intensity.  Maximum sustained winds are now 75kts and MSLP is 983mb.

Karl is still a major hurricane, and not a threat to land.  Presently at
18.6N 47.1W and tracking NW at 10kts, a sharp recurve to the north is
expected soon.  Latest satellite-estimated intensity is 105kts and

At 12Z this morning, TD13 was upgraded to TS Lisa, the 12th named storm
of the season.  As of 21Z, Lisa was at 13.8N 36.8W and moving W at
10kts.  Still VERY close behind Karl, the intensity is a remarkable
55kts and 994mb.  This is an interesting case of tropical cyclogenesis
in the immediate neighborhood of a major hurricane.  Unlike her big
brother Karl, Lisa is expected to continue heading west *slowly* maybe
reaching the Lesser Antilles in 8-10 days.

Elsewhere, there's a borad impressive tropical wave just behind Lisa at
about 26W that will be watched for further organization.

So, although there are 2 hurricanes and a tropical storm out there, none
of them will be affecting land in the near future, if at all.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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