During the night and early morning hours, Ivan went through an eyewall replacement cycle, and was hit by light northwesterly wind shear, and weakened to 120kts as a result, but still a CAT4 hurricane. The latest satellite imagery shows gradual strengthening again, with the coldest cloud tops wrapping around a clearing eye. As of 21Z, Hurricane Ivan was located at 17.0N 76.2W and tracking WNW at 11kts. Aircraft-measured intensity is 120kts and 937mb. The storm is just now entering enhanced SSTs and oceanic heat content as it nears Jamaica and then again between Jamaica and Cuba. The very dangerous storm is just 80 miles away from Jamaica, and is expected to hit it head-on tonight (around 1-2am local time) as a CAT4 storm... even stronger than Gilbert '88 which was totally devastating. Major hurricane-force winds could ravage the island for up to 8 hours. The death toll has already reached 25, and it hasn't even hit Jamaica, Cuba, or the US yet. But hopefully enough precautions and evacuations have taken place that people will be safe. The Florida Keys are presently being evacuated. The forecast is certainly of great interest to a LOT of people. It looks more and more apparent that Florida is indeed the target of yet another tropical assault. Jamaica will be hit late tonight, then western-central Cuba on Sunday evening, then it should be very close to the FL Keys midday Monday. It is too early to give an exact landfall location in mainland FL, aside from saying the panhandle and western peninsula. Intensity at US landfall will depend on what effects Cuba has on it, so we'll have to wait until early Monday perhaps to see that.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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