07 October 2002

You guessed it, Kyle's still out there.

Little has transpired over the weekend: TS Kyle is still at about the
same place and same intensity as he was on Friday morning.  As of 15Z
today, he has racked up 13.75 Named Storm Days, 2.5 Hurricane Days, and
0 Intense Hurricane Days, and has still traversed a mere 20 degrees
longitude in that time (with only 2 real eras of movement, the rest of
the time he's been meandering or stationary).  This morning, the center
has apparently split again, making the position and motion highly

The 15Z advisory places TS Kyle at 32.6N 70.8W and drifting SW at 3kts. 
Intensity is 35kts and 1006mb.  He did survive another episode of high
shear during the weekend, during which he weakened to a TD, again; but
has since made a comeback, again.  There is presently deep convection
near the southern main center, so shear is most decidedly weaker now. 
The forecast is for very gradual and slight strengthening over the next
day or so, then level off.  In terms of track, he is expected to start
drifting more southerly, then perhaps SSW through Thursday, but I can
say that NHC's skill with his track in the past has been minimal
(likewise with the computer models).  We'll probably still be talking
about Kyle next weekend too.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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