03 October 2002

Kyle STILL a TS, Lili made landfall near Pecan Island at 0900 CDT.

Kyle has now racked up 11 Named Storm Days (days during which the storm
was at TS strength or above), and has barely traversed the Atlantic. 
Only as a hurricane was he moving appreciably, the rest of the time was
spent meandering slowly or completely stationary.  At 09Z today, TS Kyle
was located at 29.0N 66.6W and stationary.  Intensity was 55kts and
994mb, so it appears that his effort to regain hurricane status
yesterday was short-lived (but he's surprised us before).  The forecast
is for persistence once again... roughly same intensity and a start of a
NW movement over the next three days.  

Hurricane Lili had intensified very rapidly late Wednesday, with the
MSLP dropping 32mb in 24 hours -ending at 21Z- or 15mb in 6 hours
-ending 21Z.  Then, in hindsight, it seems that she was undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle, which is quite normal for intense hurricanes,
but land (among other factors including SSTs, shear, trough, etc)
perhaps disrupted the normal completion of that cycle.  The inner
eyewall collapsed, and although a new larger, outer eyewall eventually
formed (as evident on the New Orleans and Lake Charles radars), it was
incomplete and the inner core did not fully [re]mature.  As a result of
the disruption, the storm weakened almost as fast as it strengthened
just hours before.  The pressure rose 19mb in 12 hours -ending at 09Z

Lili made landfall between Pecan Island and Marsh Island, LA (in
Vermilion Parish and Iberia Parish, respectively) at about 1400Z today
as an 85kt CAT2 hurricane... this is 80 miles SE of Lake Charles and 80
miles SW of Baton Rouge.  Due to the rapid weakening, the storm surge
was not as bad as expected, perhaps 6-10' instead of 15-20'.  Although
flooding from the rain will be a concern, it won't be as bad what we saw
from Isidore last week at this time.  So far I know of one tornado in
Terrabonne Parish, but that threat will still be quite large today,
especially to the east of the path.  This scenario was very much like
Bret in 1999; he was a CAT4 just off the coast but weakened just prior
to landfall, and hit halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. 
Lili had the same intensity trend, and made landfall between Houston and
New Orleans.  Even Andrew in 1992 would have been magnitudes more
devastating if he hit downtown Miami, just 15-20 miles north of
Homestead.  The U.S. has been very fortunate in the exact locations of
these impacts. 
As of 13Z today, Lili was located at 29.4N 92.2W and moving NNW at
13kts... this is directly over the LA coastline, so weakening will be
accelerated now as friction with land causes the Low to fill and the
fuel source (Gulf) is gone.  The maximum sustained winds are 85kts and
the central pressure is up to 962mb.

The watches and warnings are almost too numerous to mention, but I'll
highlight: a Hurricane Warning is in effect for extreme eastern TX and
LA as far east as the Mississippi delta, a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the rest of LA and MS and AL, Coastal Flood Watches and
Warnings extend all along the LA, MS, AL, and FL panhandle coasts, a
Tornado Watch is in effect for all of southern LA and MS (this watch
will shift northward during the day to include northern LA, MS, AR, and
perhaps AL), and Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings will
doubtlessly be posted throughout the day, so stay tuned to local TV or
radio if you live any of the states mentioned above.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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