12 October 2002

Kyle makes landfall, and one more intensity cycle; eyes point to SW Caribbean.

Although landfall technically occurred yesterday, it's tough to say
precisely WHERE it was.  Kyle followed the contour of the southeast US
with amazing detail, from the GA/SC border all the way north to Cape
Hatteras.  There were six damaging tornadoes in eastern NC and some
fairly serious coastal flooding associated with his passage.  Of course,
something strange or unusual had to happen... he was downdraded to a TD
at the 00Z Intermediate advisory, then once back out over the Atlantic,
re-strengthened into a TS at 09Z -the 5th time doing this.  Now at 15.5
Named Storm Days and nearly 22 total days, he is (I believe) the 3rd
longest-living tropical cyclone in Atlantic history.

At 15Z, TS Kyle was at 36.0N 75.0W (35 miles ENE of Nag's Head, NC) and
tracking ENE at 20kts.  Max winds as indicated by buoys, satellite, and
aircraft are 40kts and the MSLP is 1009mb.  He is in the process of
becoming extratropical, and the baroclinic assist he's getting is what
led to the intensification (as one would have expected).  However, in
the near future, his circulation will be indistinguishable from that of
the trough and mid-latitude Low.  And so ends the life of a storm we've
been talking about since September 20.

Meanwhile... the wave near the Cape Verde Islands is looking much less
organized and is not of great concern at this time.  However, of much
greater concern is the brewing situation in the southwest Caribbean Sea
(correction to yesterday's update: the area of interest is not the Bay
of Campeche, but rather the Caribbean down by Panama).  Although
disorganized and broad now, the area of disturbed weather down there is
still favored by virtually every model for development.  The track is
what makes it a concern:  northward over western or central Cuba, then
into the southern FL peninsula, then perhaps up along the US east
coast.  The timing and exact positions are not agreed upon, but that
general scenario is.  Although presently in very strong westerly shear,
if organization occurs fairly soon and the models therefore prove their
skill, landfall on FL could be as soon as Tuesday morning, but could
certainly be later.  Seeing that this year has been the year of U.S.
landfalls, I'd be cautious!  

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment