04 October 2002

Kyle becoming a permanent fixture, Lili transitions to extratropical.

For those of you keeping track, this is the second full week of talking
about Kyle, and it's not over yet.  Kyle has confounded all
climatological wisdom about Atlantic storms with his longevity, mediocre
intensity, and stagnation.  As a named storm, his intensity has had a
range of 40kts, and in terms of stagnation, in two weeks his entire
track would fit within a box 20 degrees E-W by 7 degrees N-S.  At 15Z
today, TS Kyle was located at 30.2N 69.8W and is tracking NW at 5kts. 
Intensity is 35kts and 1004mb.  The forecast is for a turn to the north,
slight acceleration, and slight strengthening as the shear should lessen
by Friday night.  He's expected to be about 400km (250 miles) east of
Cape Hatteras on Monday morning.

After landfall on Thursday morning, Lili continued up through LA, then
along the AR/TN border and is still tracking NE across the lower
Mississippi Valley, but is no longer tropical in nature.  The last
advisory was written on Lili at 09Z today.  I know of 14 tornadoes that
she spawned in LA and MS yesterday after landfall, and more could occur
today across northern AL, central TN, KY, IN, OH, and southeast MI as
the vorticity associated with the remnants could still be focused into
smaller-scale features... namely tornadoes.  Other landfall effects
include half a million people without power, many structures collapsed
from wind or floods, and flooded coastal areas; but since 900,000+
people were evacuated in preparation for landfall, the human toll was
greatly minimized (several injuries, but no known deaths so far).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment