15 October 2002

TD14 fighting strong shear.

TD14 has been struggling against strong (20kts) westerly shear since
yesterday, which is why it still has not reached TS intensity.  The
low-level center is removed from the convection, although the convection
has been deep and persistent.  The future intensity will be a delicate
battle between shear, land, SSTs, and baroclinicity, but in general, I
don't see it becoming much more than a weak TS.  The IR satellite
imagery reveals no real banding features, no classic CDO, just
convection scattered around a mid-level center.

At 15Z, TD14 was located at 17.9N 82.7W (130 miles southwest of Grand
Cayman) and tracking NE at 4kts.  Maxiumum sustained winds are 30kts and
the MSLP is 1004mb.  Some slight strengthening is likely (to perhaps
50kts according to the latest NHC forecast) due to the latter two
factors I mentioned above [or major strengthening according to the GFDL
model, which makes it a minimal hurricane before hitting Cuba, then a
strong CAT2 as it passes over the Bahamas].  Note the motion... it's
already NE, so that will remove FL from the primary threat zone.  A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, Isle of
Youth, and central Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
Bahamas.  The advancing trough will continue forcing the track to
accelerate to the NE, crossing over Cuba on Wednesday morning, the
Bahamas Wednesday night, and be up by Newfoundland by midday Friday. 
Again, if/when this gets named, it will be Marco.

The tropical wave I had mentioned a few days ago near the Cape Verde
Islands is re-organizing somewhat.  It's located at approximately 7N 31W
(1100km SW of the Cape Verdes) and heading W at 15kts.  It is also in a
region of high shear, but that MAY relax over the next couple days.  

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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