02 October 2002

Lili rapidly intensifies to CAT4 storm...

Since the primary update was mailed out earlier today, Lili has
strengthened significantly.  She is now at 120kts sustained (gusting to
145kts) and has a central pressure of 938mb.  This makes her a CAT4
hurricane.  The pressure has fallen 15mb in the past 6 hours, and the
temperature in the eye is continuously rising.

As of 21Z, Lili was at 25.9N 90.0W and tracking NW at 14kts.  Landfall
is expected to be very near Pecan Island at 18Z tomorrow (1300 CDT) as a
125kt storm (11kts shy of CAT5 status).  Besides the severe sustained
winds, gusts could reach 155kts (180mph), tornadoes will be likely in
the rainbands and eyewall, storm surge could be 18-20' and travel 25
miles inland, and up to a foot of rain could fall along her path.  Over
200,000 people have already been forced to evacuate, and more are still
in progress.

I'll take one sentence to summarize recent happenings with Kyle... he's
now at 60kts and 991mb, so is almost a hurricane again.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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