19 June 2013

TD2 organizing quickly... Barry before landfall?

Tropical Depression 2 emerged back over water just before 11pm EDT on Tuesday, and is now comfortably over the Bay of Campeche.  As of 8am EDT, it's still a tropical depression with 30kt winds, and centered about 130 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico.  However, given its satellite appearance and other satellite measurements, it stands a very good chance of being upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry soon, well before it makes its second and final landfall near Veracruz tomorrow afternoon (local).

The water temperature is amply warm at 29C, but it's in an environment with about 15kts of vertical shear... not hostile, but not friendly either.  Since coming back over the water though, the deep convection associated with it has really increased in coverage and intensity.  The vertical shear is also expected to decrease notably over the next day.

A reconaissance aircraft is scheduled to begin probing the storm by 2pm EDT.  The long radar loop from Sabancuy, Mexico is still available, and unfortunately, the next radar site of interest in Alvarado is down for maintenance as of this update.

As mentioned before, landfall is expected on Thursday afternoon (local time) near the city of Veracruz, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for much of the central and southern portions of the state of Veracruz.

Climatologically, the second named storm forms on August 1, so if this is upgraded to Barry today, we'd be about six weeks ahead of par.  Also, if this scenario seems like something you've seen before, you'd be right.  Other storms to follow similar tracks with similar intensities include Arlene 2011, Alex 2010, Marco 2008, Gert 2005, etc.

Previous storms with tracks and intensities comparable to TD2.

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