18 June 2013

Heavy rain biggest concern from Tropical Depression 2

Tropical Depression 2 made landfall on southern Belize at 5pm EDT yesterday, as expected.  Now, as it weakens over land, its forward motion has slowed to 8mph and it is dumping heavy rain over the mountainous terrain in Guatemala, Belize, and southern Mexico. 

The decreased forward speed means it will spend more time over land than originally forecast.  Whatever remains of it could reach the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday evening (local), but will it have enough organization to re-intensify?  The official forecast from NHC as of 5am EDT today does include minimal strengthening, but still not enough to become a tropical storm... and that comes with the uncertainty disclaimer that it may never re-emerge over water.

Rainfall totals in Belize, Honduras, and southern Mexico already exceed 5" at some locations, and while 3-5" is expected over the general area, some locations could end up with up to 10".  I have a new radar loop from Sabancuy, Mexico available today... it will accumulate new frames every 15 minutes, so check back later too!

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