17 June 2013

Tropical Depression 2 heading for Yucatan peninsula

UPDATE: At 11am EDT, this disturbance was upgraded to Tropical Depression 2, with 30kt winds and a 1008mb central pressure.

A slow-moving easterly wave that has been trackable for about five days is now arriving at the Yucatan peninsula, with a 1008mb surface low centered on the northern Honduras coast and about 80 miles east of the Belize coast.  It is quite unusual to have any noteworthy easterly wave activity so early in the season, and this is the second wave this month.  An aircraft recon mission that was planned for the area later this afternoon to get a better assessment of the intensity has been canceled due to proximity to land... will have to wait for its re-emergence into the Bay of Campeche for next flight.

Early morning visible satellite image of the disturbance.  The past track of the center is shown by the black line, the current location is the red L, and the potential future track is in bright green.
I have a long radar loop available from Belize that will aid in identifying and tracking a surface low -- new frames will be appended to it, so check back throughout the day.

This disturbance has been very slow to develop... one reason is its proximity to land (it tracked over northern South America for the last few days), and another is its low latitude (doesn't get much of a rotational boost from the Coriolis effect).  Now, it will be trekking over land again, but could emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow and stand a chance of further development.  If it ends up tracking over Mexico, then it is finished.

The majority of models keep it right along the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, again too close to land to strengthen much, but still capable of producing a lot of rain.  The forecast motion is WNW-NW, which would bring the center into the Tampico, Mexico area on Thursday.  There are currently no watches or warnings associated with this disturbance, but as always, you can find the latest watches and warnings on the NHC website.

If this disturbance should reach tropical storm intensity, the next name on the list is Barry.  A trivia nugget: Barry is one of the original names introduced to the lists back in 1983.  The only "B" storm to get retired since the modern era of naming began in 1979 is Bob in 1991.

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