03 June 2013

Gulf of Mexico remains unsettled

In today's update, I will focus more on the disturbance near the Yucatan peninsula, and just briefly mention that the disturbance I've been tracking in the east Atlantic is in no rush to get better organized (it's centered near 35W today).

The area of interest in the southern Gulf of Mexico continues to fester, and models continue to develop a tropical cyclone out of the region within the next few days.

The graphic below shows two versions of a tropical cyclone formation probability map... the top is model-based, and the bottom is satellite-based.  Both are valid within the next 2 days, and both agree that the Yucatan system is of greatest interest, while only the model-based version brings attention to the eastern Atlantic wave.

0-48h model-based formation probability (EMC) and 
satellite-based formation probability (CIRA).

Among the models that show this system gradually congealing into something, a track toward Florida is anticipated... with the area between Tampa and Apalachicola looking most likely in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.  However, at this time, models are not indicating that this would become much more than a tropical or subtropical storm.  If nothing else, substantial rainfall is expected across much of Florida over the next 5 days, particularly to the right of the system's center...

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