22 August 2005

Atlantic Earliest "N-th" Storm Records

From Gary Padgett:
 
Back in July I looked up the earliest occurrences of Atlantic
TCs number 6 - 12 within a season.     Dennis, Emily, Franklin,
Gert, Harvey and Irene all set new records for the earliest
4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th tropical storms, respectively.
 
Following is an updated table for TCs 10 - 21:
 
Number     Number of            Earliest                 2nd Earliest                        3rd Earliest 
 of TS      Occurrences
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10th TS         many             23 Aug 1995 (Jerry)       26 Aug 1933                   28 Aug 1936
11th TS         many             28 Aug 1933                 28 Aug 1936                   28 Aug 1995 (Karen)
12th TS         many             29 Aug 1995 (Luis)        31 Aug 1933                     7 Sep 1936
13th TS           17                 8 Sep 1933                  8 Sep 1936                    13 Sep 1995 (Marilyn)
14th TS           13               10 Sep 1933                 10 Sep 1936                    27 Sep 1995 (Noel)
15th TS             7               16 Sep 1933                 19 Sep 1936                    30 Sep 1995 (Opal)
16th TS             6               27 Sep 1933                   5 Oct 1995 (Pablo)           9 Oct 1936
17th TS             4               28 Sep 1933                   9 Oct 1995 (Roxanne)     21 Nov 1969 (Martha)
18th TS             3                1 Oct 1933                   21 Oct 1995 (Sebastien)    4 Dec 1887
19th TS             3               25 Oct 1933                  27 Oct 1995 (Tanya)          7 Dec 1887
20th TS             1               26 Oct 1933
21st TS             1               15 Nov 1933
 
All the above is based on the current Best Track file, which has been re-analyzed for the
years 1851 - 1910.   Information for 1911 onward will be subject to revision, and this
could affect stats for some of the busier seasons, especially 1916, 1933 and 1936.
 
 
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

17 August 2005

Irene becoming extratropical...

Since my last update two days ago, Irene had briefly reached Category 2 
intensity, but is now rapidly losing tropical characteristics as it is 
affected by the mid-latitude jet.  It has been downgraded to a Tropical 
Storm with maximum sustained winds of 60kts and a central pressure of 
990mb.  It's located at 38.5N 56.3W and zipping off to the northeast at 
18kts.

The remnants of TD10 have continued to drift WNW and although struggling 
to overcome shear, appears to be making a comeback, and could be 
re-upgraded to TD10 in the near future.  It's presently at about 18N 
56W... a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands.

As of today at 21Z, the season's NTC stands at 81%.
Of historical note, today is the 36th anniversary of Hurricane Camille's 
deadly and devastating landfall on the MS coast.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

15 August 2005

Irene becomes 3rd hurricane, TD10 comes and goes...

On Sunday night, Irene was upgraded to a hurricane, the third of the 
season.  Since then, the satellite presentation has been quite nice, and 
it's not outlandish to think that it could become a CAT2 storm before 
transitioning to extratropical over the central north Atlantic.  At 21Z, 
Hurricane Irene was located at 36.7N 66.0W and tracking ENE at 10kts.  
The latest satellite imagery suggests that the motion is perhaps even E 
at 10kts.  Estimated intensity is 80kts and 980mb.

TD10 formed in the deep tropics over the weekend, but was in a high-
shear environment.  Only four advisories were written before NHC decided 
to downgrade it to a low-level circulation.  HOWEVER, within about 12 
hours, it will be crossing a low-shear zone, and if it takes advantage 
of that, it could regenerate and become interesting again.

I've descibed the NTC Activity index before, and as of now, the season 
stands at about 79%, which is quite phenomenal for the second week of 
August!  Typically, the bulk of the season is still coming in the next 
two months!
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.