An easterly wave that exited the African continent back on July 29 has gradually gotten better organized, and was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 at 15Z today based on microwave satellite data. Intensity is estimated to be 30kts and 1006mb, and is moving WNW at 15kts. It presently located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
The forecast is for continued slow strengthening over the next couple of days, then perhaps only maintaining intensity after that as it heads into a less favorable environment (strong vertical shear). By Thursday or so, we should have a clear idea of whether or not the storm will recurve to the north or if the track will flatten out a bit and maintain a WNW heading. If it recurves, it's destined to head out into the open ocean, but it if doesn't recurve by the end of the week, then we have to start thinking about potential landfalls.
The next name on the list is Colin. Colin is a new name this season (all of the names are on a 6-year rotation, until retired due to a significant societal impact), replacing Charley which made landfall near Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte FL on August 13, 2004 as a Category 4 hurricane. While on the topic, other new names this season are Fiona (replaces Frances), Igor (replaces Ivan), and Julia (replaces Jeanne).
Since it's now August, several people have asked how this season stands compared to normal in terms of activity. 2010 is just slightly more active so far compared to an average season. We've seen 2 named storms (3 if TD4 gets named), 1 of which became a hurricane. Climatologically, there are 2 named storms and no hurricanes by this date.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
02 August 2010
23 July 2010
TD3 upgraded to Bonnie, moving over FL today...
Tropical Depression 3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie at 03Z today based on aircraft recon. The storm is still sheared and relatively disorganized, but strong enough to be a TS. The potent upper-level Low that has been plagueing the system for days has rotated around to the west and is now inducing moderate southeasterly vertical shear over Bonnie.
At 15Z today, the intensity is 35kts and 1008mb, and is located over Biscayne Bay, FL (just south of Miami and north of Homestead). It will weaken as it spends the next 12 or so hours over land... though historically, the moist flat land of southern FL doesn't weaken tropical systems very much. Areas in the southern FL peninsula should be prepared for tropical storm conditions throughout the day, including heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.
The forecast after crossing the peninsula is for a gradual re-intensification, though most likely not reaching hurricane strength before making another landfall near eastern LA in the morning hours on Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western Bahamas and the entire southern FL peninsula from West Palm Beach, down to the Keys, and up to Tampa. TS Warnings are also in effect for the north central Gulf coast from Destin FL westward to Morgan City LA.
This will certainly have an impact on the oil spill region, creating large (15-20') swells at sea and large waves at the coast for several days, combined with a small storm surge.
Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that was over the Bay of Campeche yesterday moved inland over Mexico before developing.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
At 15Z today, the intensity is 35kts and 1008mb, and is located over Biscayne Bay, FL (just south of Miami and north of Homestead). It will weaken as it spends the next 12 or so hours over land... though historically, the moist flat land of southern FL doesn't weaken tropical systems very much. Areas in the southern FL peninsula should be prepared for tropical storm conditions throughout the day, including heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.
The forecast after crossing the peninsula is for a gradual re-intensification, though most likely not reaching hurricane strength before making another landfall near eastern LA in the morning hours on Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western Bahamas and the entire southern FL peninsula from West Palm Beach, down to the Keys, and up to Tampa. TS Warnings are also in effect for the north central Gulf coast from Destin FL westward to Morgan City LA.
This will certainly have an impact on the oil spill region, creating large (15-20') swells at sea and large waves at the coast for several days, combined with a small storm surge.
Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that was over the Bay of Campeche yesterday moved inland over Mexico before developing.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
22 July 2010
Disturbance upgraded to TD3...
The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning this week was upgraded to Tropical Depression 3 at 15Z today based on improved satellite presentation and identification of a surface circulation. An aircraft is scheduled to fly through the system later today to accurately gauge the intensity. At 15Z, TD3 was located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba (and south of the central islands of the Bahamas), and the intensity was estimated to be 30kts and 1008mb. It is still being adversely affected by the strong upper-level Low to its north, so intensification should be minimal... perhaps reaching a moderate tropical storm.
The forecast track is to continue WNW, gradually gaining speed with time as it comes under the influence of a ridge to the north. On this track, it will affect the Bahamas, southern Florida, and eventually the north-central Gulf coast. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the western half of the Bahamas and for the southern tip of the Florida peninsula: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W_NL+gif/. The circulation should become visible from the radar at Camaguey, Cuba: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif
Another area of interest has been moving slowly across the western Caribbean and into the Bay of Campeche over the last several days. It's now about 120 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and tracking W at 10kts. You can also monitor this from the Altamira radar at http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-altamira.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
The forecast track is to continue WNW, gradually gaining speed with time as it comes under the influence of a ridge to the north. On this track, it will affect the Bahamas, southern Florida, and eventually the north-central Gulf coast. Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the western half of the Bahamas and for the southern tip of the Florida peninsula: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W_NL+gif/. The circulation should become visible from the radar at Camaguey, Cuba: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif
Another area of interest has been moving slowly across the western Caribbean and into the Bay of Campeche over the last several days. It's now about 120 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and tracking W at 10kts. You can also monitor this from the Altamira radar at http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-altamira.gif
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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