23 July 2010

TD3 upgraded to Bonnie, moving over FL today...

Tropical Depression 3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie at 03Z today based on aircraft recon.  The storm is still sheared and relatively disorganized, but strong enough to be a TS.  The potent upper-level Low that has been plagueing the system for days has rotated around to the west and is now inducing moderate southeasterly vertical shear over Bonnie.

At 15Z today, the intensity is 35kts and 1008mb, and is located over Biscayne Bay, FL (just south of Miami and north of Homestead).  It will weaken as it spends the next 12 or so hours over land... though historically, the moist flat land of southern FL doesn't weaken tropical systems very much.  Areas in the southern FL peninsula should be prepared for tropical storm conditions throughout the day, including heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.

The forecast after crossing the peninsula is for a gradual re-intensification, though most likely not reaching hurricane strength before making another landfall near eastern LA in the morning hours on Sunday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western Bahamas and the entire southern FL peninsula from West Palm Beach, down to the Keys, and up to Tampa.  TS Warnings are also in effect for the north central Gulf coast from Destin FL westward to Morgan City LA.

This will certainly have an impact on the oil spill region, creating large (15-20') swells at sea and large waves at the coast for several days, combined with a small storm surge.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather that was over the Bay of Campeche yesterday moved inland over Mexico before developing.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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