22 July 2010

Disturbance upgraded to TD3...

The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning this week was upgraded to Tropical Depression 3 at 15Z today based on improved satellite presentation and identification of a surface circulation.  An aircraft is scheduled to fly through the system later today to accurately gauge the intensity.  At 15Z, TD3 was located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba (and south of the central islands of the Bahamas), and the intensity was estimated to be 30kts and 1008mb.  It is still being adversely affected by the strong upper-level Low to its north, so intensification should be minimal... perhaps reaching a moderate tropical storm.

The forecast track is to continue WNW, gradually gaining speed with time as it comes under the influence of a ridge to the north.  On this track, it will affect the Bahamas, southern Florida, and eventually the north-central Gulf coast.  Tropical Storm warnings have been issued for the western half of the Bahamas and for the southern tip of the Florida peninsula: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W_NL+gif/.  The circulation should become visible from the radar at Camaguey, Cuba: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

Another area of interest has been moving slowly across the western Caribbean and into the Bay of Campeche over the last several days.  It's now about 120 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and tracking W at 10kts.  You can also monitor this from the Altamira radar at http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-altamira.gif

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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