Odette gets stronger...

Since yesterday morning, TS Odette has gotten better organized and more
intense, despite fairly high vertical shear.  The center has been hard
to track accurately... either it's masked by the CDO or it reforms under
new deep convection.  Regardless, it's only drifting northeast.

At 15Z today, Odette was located at 14.2N 74.2W and moving toward the
ENE at 4kts.  Aircraft-measured intensity is 45kts and 993mb and she
still appears to be getting better organized.  SSTs are still very warm
(28.5C), and the oceanic heat content is very high in this part of the
Caribbean, but vertical shear is not letting up much.  An aside... the
environmental SLP is about 1012mb now at this latitude, which is lower
than it would be in the summer; this helps explain the 993mb MSLP of
Odette and only 45kt winds.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, and much of
the Dominican Republic; a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
eastern islands of the Bahamas.  Odette is forecast to strengthen some
more, but most likely not reach hurricane intensity.  She has now
contributed 1.0 additional Named Storm Days to the 2003 season, bringing
the total to 73.0.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

TD20 forms in the western Caribbean...

At 15Z today, the area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday was
upgraded to Tropical Depression 20.  This was based on surface
observations in the area and the presentation on satellite.  An aircraft
will fly into the system later today to confirm or deny Tropical Storm
status.  If sustained winds in the surface circulation are at least
35kts, it will become TS Odette, the 15th named storm of the season
(although the season is officially over).

At 15Z, TD20 was located at 13.3N 76.3W and tracking NNE at 9kts. 
Intensity is 30kts and 1005mb.  The storm is expected to strenghten,
probably becoming a TS this afternoon, and to accelerate northward with
time.  This time of year, it would be very difficult for a tropical
system to survive outside of the deep tropics, so it should make the
extratropical transition during the weekend. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Haiti coast, and
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for portions of the southern
Dominican Republic coast and the eastern islands of the Bahamas. 
Jamaica and Cuba could begin experiencing adverse weather today and
warnings might be issued for those areas as well.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Post-season activity might be brewing...

For nearly a week, I've been watching an area of disturbed weather in
the Bay of Campeche and over central America.  It has drifted a bit more
north into the west central Caribbean Sea now, and showing signs of
organization.

There is a broad circulation centered at about 13N 77W with significant
divergence aloft.  It is over 29C ocean temperatures, and in this part
of the basin, the warm water is deep, resulting in a high oceanic heat
content to fuel a potential storm.  Vertical shear could be the major
inhibiting factor (not a surprise in December especially)... strong
southwesterly flow aloft could keep it from organizing further.

A recon aircraft might investigate the system on Thursday to check for a
closed surface circulation.  If so, it would be come TD20, and if it
gets named, it will be Odette.

Recall this season started with Ana in the last week of April.  Only
fitting to maybe get Odette in the first week of December!  Officially,
hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.  I'll keep you posted
if anything happens with this.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.