04 December 2003

TD20 forms in the western Caribbean...

At 15Z today, the area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday was
upgraded to Tropical Depression 20.  This was based on surface
observations in the area and the presentation on satellite.  An aircraft
will fly into the system later today to confirm or deny Tropical Storm
status.  If sustained winds in the surface circulation are at least
35kts, it will become TS Odette, the 15th named storm of the season
(although the season is officially over).

At 15Z, TD20 was located at 13.3N 76.3W and tracking NNE at 9kts. 
Intensity is 30kts and 1005mb.  The storm is expected to strenghten,
probably becoming a TS this afternoon, and to accelerate northward with
time.  This time of year, it would be very difficult for a tropical
system to survive outside of the deep tropics, so it should make the
extratropical transition during the weekend. 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the Haiti coast, and
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for portions of the southern
Dominican Republic coast and the eastern islands of the Bahamas. 
Jamaica and Cuba could begin experiencing adverse weather today and
warnings might be issued for those areas as well.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment