03 December 2003

Post-season activity might be brewing...

For nearly a week, I've been watching an area of disturbed weather in
the Bay of Campeche and over central America.  It has drifted a bit more
north into the west central Caribbean Sea now, and showing signs of

There is a broad circulation centered at about 13N 77W with significant
divergence aloft.  It is over 29C ocean temperatures, and in this part
of the basin, the warm water is deep, resulting in a high oceanic heat
content to fuel a potential storm.  Vertical shear could be the major
inhibiting factor (not a surprise in December especially)... strong
southwesterly flow aloft could keep it from organizing further.

A recon aircraft might investigate the system on Thursday to check for a
closed surface circulation.  If so, it would be come TD20, and if it
gets named, it will be Odette.

Recall this season started with Ana in the last week of April.  Only
fitting to maybe get Odette in the first week of December!  Officially,
hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.  I'll keep you posted
if anything happens with this.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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