Fabian still a major hurricane, TD12 forms, eastern Atlantic very interesting...

As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian has accumulated 4.75 Intense Hurricane
Days.  Previous record holders are Gert '99 (6), Edouard '96 (7.5), and
Luis '95 (8).  It seems probable that Fabian will surpass Gert, but
probably not Edouard or Luis, leaving him in third place.  For
comparison, there were a TOTAL of 2.5 Intense Hurricane Days during the
entire 2002 season.

Also as of 15Z, Fabian was located at 25.2N 64.0W and tracking NNW at
10kts.  The eye is 25nm in diameter now, and intensity is 105kts and
944mb.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely as he begins the
recurvature process, then significant weakening once he interacts with
the approaching trough.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bermuda;
they are anticipating a direct hit on Friday evening with sustained
winds of 110kts and gusts to 135kts.  Very large swells from this storm
should begin reaching the US east coast later today and Friday.

After passing Bermuda, Fabian will interact with a trough and make the
extra-tropical transition, losing his tropical characteristics and
zipping off to the north central Atlantic.  Baroclinic enhancement can
sometimes temporarily intensity the storm, but at the same time, its
demise is never far behind.

At 21Z yesterday, TD12 formed in the eastern Gulf from that area of
disturbed weather I'd been talking about for a few days.  Although still
poorly organized, it's nearly stationary and in very favorable
conditions, likely leading to further development.  At 15Z today, TD12
was at 27.9N 87.1W and has 30kt sustained winds and a 1010mb MSLP.  It
is forecast to become a named storm early Friday as it drifts northeast
toward the FL panhandle.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from
Englewood to Indian Pass, FL and landfall is expected to hit early
Saturday morning.  Should this get named, its name will be Henri.

The tropical wave I mentioned yesterday near the Cape Verde Islands is
still there and still a candidate for development.  It's at about 12N
27W and has a 1010mb Low that's tracking very slowly westward.  The next
number/name on deck is 13/Isabel (assuming TD12 goes to Henri).

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Fabian still maintaining intensity...

As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian was located at 22.4N 62.7W and
tracking NW at 8kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 115kts and the MSLP is
945mb.  The forecast is for very gradual weakening and a recurve close
to Bermuda.  It is likely that Bermuda will experience the worst part of
the storm Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

During the night, it appears that the storm underwent an eyewall
replacement cycle.  A clear eye was distorted/missing for several hours
and now the eye that's present is noticeably larger.  It's very common
for intense hurricanes to undergo these eyewall replacement cycles; it's
merely the storm's way of reorganizing itself to maximize efficiency
(smart little critters).  The new eye is about 30 nautical miles in
diameter (55km) rather than the 20nm eye it had yesterday.

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned near the Yucatan is now in the
eastern Gulf and although not terribly well organized at the moment,
conditions are favorable so it's still an area of interest.

The easterly wave near the Cape Verde Islands continues to slowly get
better organized and is presently at about 12N 23W.  It has a 1008mb Low
embedded in it.  There's also an easterly wave to its west at about 14N
35W which is tracking W at 5kts.  These two are close enough to possibly
merge into a single vorticity center, as some computer models indicate.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

Fabian still a CAT4 hurricane...

Hurricane Fabian's intensity has changed little in the past 48 hours,
and is still a Category 4 storm (with 3.0 Intense Hurricane Days racked
up so far).  The eye is very small at 20 nautical miles in diameter, and
there is some evidence of slight westerly vertical wind shear.

At 15Z today, Fabian was located at 20.3N 60.4W and tracking WNW at
9kts.  Intensity is 120kts and 945mb.  It is expected to slowly weaken
over the next few days, but still be a major hurricane.  The forecast
track has remained basically unchanged, still recurving just west of
Bermuda.  I suspect Bermuda will be in for a rough ride on Friday
especially if it ends up on the front-right quadrant of a major
hurricane.

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned yesterday in the western
Caribbean has lost much of its deep convection, but the broad
circulation is still present and conditions are favorable for
development... assuming convection comes back.

There is a new Low that formed within a tropical wave west of the Cape
Verde Islands at about 14N 33W.  It has made some progress today in
organization and will be watched this week for development.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.